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Q1. Calculate the probability for the following statements. Draw the Probability tree diagram also.
In a medical college of Pune (a class of 100 people), 30 % people Like to have Misal-pav on the farewell party as per the google form survey. Remaining people have chosen vadapav. Out of those who have chosen Misal-pav 50 % said that they would eat only Jain Misal pav. Well, 30 % of those have chosen Vadapav, also said they would have Jain Vadapav only.
What is the stack (percent & number) of people Who will have Jain Food (including MISal pav and Vadapav)
What is the probability of selecting a person who would eat Misal pav given that person’s diet type is Jain. (10 Marks)
Note: Handmade drawing of Diagram is prohibited; prepare it with the help of software like MS-Word.
Q2. Write the interpretation for the following regression model. You are advised to run the analysis using MS EXCEL.
Here Hiranmayee Dhar, an entrepreneur who is running “Pashminaa” a store of Pashmina shawls. She is targeting customers via social media applications; she has chosen Instagram as a platform and had also chosen REELs to advertise her products. She is looking for a forecasting model to understand the impact of no of likes of the REELs demonstrating product and its sales (in number of units). (10 Marks)
Reel
Number Number
of units sold Number
of likes
Reel 1 24 1503
Reel 2 24 1564
Reel 3 24 1649
Reel 4 24 1882
Reel 5 26 1924
Reel 6 28 1937
Reel 7 28 1944
Reel 8 29 2086
Reel 9 30 2150
Reel 10 31 2215
Reel 11 32 2366
Reel 12 32 2472
Reel 13 35 2622
Reel 14 35 2792
Reel 15 36 2871
Reel 16 36 2973
Reel 17 38 3000
Reel 18 38 3024
Reel 19 39 3319
Reel 20 40 3336
Reel 21 41 3337
Reel 22 41 3413
Reel 23 41 3479
Reel 24 42 3577
Reel 25 46 3617
Reel 26 46 3922
Reel 27 46 4332
Reel 28 48 4562
Reel 29 48 4577
Reel 30 48 4763
Reel 31 49 4964
Write the regression model.
Discuss the R-square, Multiple R
Discuss the ANOVA
Discuss the Significance of Independent variable and B1 value.
Q3.a) Draw an appropriate chart for the following. Also write your clarification for choosing that graph. For each variable identify a time-series component present if you consider the long- term pattern. (5 Marks)
Table: Production of Commercial crops. (Source: RBI)
Year
Groundnut (Lakh Tonnes) Rapeseed &
Mustard (Lakh Tonnes)
Soyabean (Lakh Tonnes)
2000-01 64 42 53
2001-02 70 51 60
2002-03 41 39 47
2003-04 81 63 78
2004-05 68 76 69
2005-06 80 81 83
2006-07 49 74 89
2007-08 92 58 110
2008-09 72 72 99
2009-10 54 66 100
2010-11 83 82 127
2011-12 70 66 122
2012-13 47 80 147
2013-14 97 79 119
2014-15 74 63 104
2015-16 67 68 86
2016-17 75 79 132
2017-18 93 84 109
2018-19 67 93 133
2019-20 100 91 112
2020-21 102 102 126
2021-22 101 118 130
Note: Here you are advised to use Software like EXCEL for making Graphs, copy them and paste in your assignment file. Snapshots are not allowed.
Q3.b) Write the sampling plan for the following study. Also write, what is recommended according to you, census survey or sample Survey?
Imagine yourself doing PhD in NMIMS, for one of your research papers you do require a primary survey to understand the social media consumption of LinkedIn users. Your goal is to understand why they are using LinkedIn, for how many hours a day, and their activities they do on the same platform. You do have research questionnaire in your hand as per your proper literature study. Now, the question is about survey and data collection. (5 Marks)
Old Set
Q1. Draw the decision tree diagram and explain the best possible decision based on EMVs (expected Monetary Values) On the 1st April 2023, Rajinder Saproo, an investor is in a dilemma for the investment of 10 lakh INR. He has consulted his Mumbai based friend, MukulBhai Gadhecha, an investment expert for this matter. Mr Saproo went to meet him at his office located at Prabhadevi. Mukulbhai asked him to express his feeling for the market situation in coming economic year.
Mr Saproo assumed the economic growth for the coming year in the following way.
10 % optimist for the ‘Good Economic Growth’
50 % optimist for the ‘Moderate Economic Growth’
40 % optimist for the ‘Lower Economic Growth’.
In addition to this, MuKulbhai Gadhecha carried out his analysis to derive possible payoff values considering the various investment options as per the economic situations (presented in the table given below). Figures are in INR on the investment of whole amount of 10 lakhs.
| Options | Good Economic
Growth |
Moderate Economic
Growth |
Lower Economic
Growth’ |
| Mauti Suzuki Shares | 3,00,000 | 1,20,000 | 50,000 |
| TATA Motor Shares | 4,00,000 | 1,00,000 | 10,000 |
| D Mart shares | 4,50,000 | 2,30,000 | 30,000 |
If you were in place of Mukulbhai Gadhecha, What do you recommend to Mr. Saproo?
Note: You are not allowed to use any software for the calculation. But for the preparation of Decision tree diagram you are advised to use Software like MS -Word, PowerPoint etc.
Q2. Draw the appropriate chart using MS EXCEL, also carryout Exponential Smoothing model in MS EXCEL for the given Alpha values, copy the results (from EXCEL to Word) and explain which alpha is relatively better for the forecast. In this journey of identification of relatively better way of forecasting you may take the support of MAD and MSE type of errors. Suggested Alpha values are 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9. (10 Marks)
| Yield of
Groundnut (Kg./hectare) |
|
| 2000-01 |
977 |
| 2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22 |
1127 |
|
694 |
|
|
1357 |
|
|
1020 |
|
|
1187 |
|
|
866 |
|
|
1459 |
|
|
1163 |
|
|
991 |
|
|
1411 |
|
|
1323 |
|
|
995 |
|
|
1764 |
|
|
1552 |
|
|
1465 |
|
|
1398 |
|
|
1893 |
|
|
1422 |
|
|
2063 |
|
|
1703 |
|
|
1758 |
Data Source: RBI
Q3. A) You are not advised to use Software in this case, show the calculation-steps typed in your MS-word file. In Roshni lights (manufacturer of Mirchi lights) A production run of 2000 set of Mirchi lights being tested for the life, the data shows that life is normally distributed with an average life span of 90 days and a standard deviation of 10 days. What is the probability if a set of Mirchi lights randomly selected from that lot, survived up to 100 days?
Q3 B) Draw an appropriate chart to show the contribution of each category (in percent form) of Micro, small and medium Enterprises (MSMEs) at the state level. (You may use the MS EXCEL). In conclusion also write, why you have chosen this graph for this problem?